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the tall story of Yettaw’s swim and the trial of Suu Kyi have badly backfired for Than Shwe and the regime.

Ironically, Than Shwe was the one who helped “plotters” to intensify international pressure on the regime and gave a justification for an extension of sanctions. He also faces the thorny problem of winning legitimacy for the 2010 election and the resulting government.

More pressure is expected as Suu Kyi’s trial continues. The damage has been done. Instead of fixing the problem, Than Shwe has enlarged the wound and rubbed in more salt.

"This statement issued by the alternate Asean chairman—which is not in conformity with Asean practice, incorrect in facts, interfering in the internal affairs of Myanmar [Burma]—is strongly rejected by Myanmar," the Burmese government said.

"It is sadly noted that the alternate Asean chairman failed to preserve the dignity of Asean, the dignity of Myanmar and the dignity of Thailand," said the regime statement, which was also carried by state-run newspapers, television and radio.

Under pressure from the US and the EU, Thailand, the current chairman of the 10-member Asean, issued a statement saying that with the eyes of the international community on Burma at present, the "honor and the credibility" of the Burmese regime were "at stake."

The statement added that Asean reaffirmed the regional grouping's readiness to contribute constructively to the national reconciliation process and the peaceful transition of democracy in Burma, while calling for the immediate release of Suu Kyi.

an EU-China meeting in Brussels last week failed to agree on new measures to pressure the Burmese regime to restore democracy.

While Thailand—despite issuing its strong statement—had said Asean would not change its position of engagement with Burma, China has flatly refused to get involved. China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao called on the EU "to ensure that our bilateral relationship will not be adversely affected by individual incidents."

Many Burmese living in rural areas do not understand the words "economic sanction" or "boycott", which have been imposed by the West on their country. What they do understand, however, is that some kind of punishment (pyit dan) has been imposed on the military government. Burma remains one of the poorest countries in the region. Understandably, many Burmese want foreign investors to come to their country, but this creates a dilemma, as many of them want the sanctions to stay.

Sein Kyaw Hlaing, a Burma-watcher who has written analysis and articles on the Burmese economy and is now working for Radio Free Asia in Washington, commented on this dilemma as follows: "If you ask them [the Burmese] a leading question, such as ‘Do you want a job?’ or ‘Do you want electricity in your village?’ they will say ‘yes’ to you, but if you ask them if they want sanctions to remain, most of them will also say ‘yes’."

According to a recent survey conducted among over 200 Burmese by The Irrawaddy on the Thai-Burma border and in Rangoon, almost 80 per cent of Burmese workers, editors, journalists and lawyers wanted their country to be rich and prosperous, but at the same time they don’t want the sanctions to be lifted. The editor of a well-known business magazine remarked: "We all know that sanctions won’t work, but that’s fine, we will wait." He added that if sanctions were lifted, people would feel they had been betrayed. A lawyer in Rangoon took the same position: "Sanctions have never worked in Libya, Syria and Iraq. Sanctions will also never work in Burma, but I am against lifting them because of their token encouragement. If they are lifted, the Burmese people will feel abandoned." However, the Rangoon leaders think differently. Faced with a serious economic crisis, they desperately want aid and foreign investment.

Burma's democracy movement insists that the populace stands behind sanctions, but it's hard to find much support among ordinary Burmese. "We want pressure from the international community, but we don't want sanctions," says a Rangoon-based Burmese journalist. "Our people are very, very poor."

However, the junta's own inept and unpredictable economic policies inflict far more damage than sanctions cause. For example, the prices of essential services suddenly surge when the government decides it needs cash.

Lee Kuan Yew believes Myanmar's ruling generals are "rather dumb" when it comes to managing the country's economy and will not be able to survive indefinitely ...

However, the Army must be part of the solution to the problems facing the country, he said. If the Army is dissolved, all of Myanmar's administrative instruments will go with it, and the country
will have nothing with which to govern itself.

Lee, Singapore's founding prime minister and currently minister mentor, spoke with a columnist from the University of California's Los Angeles Media Centre and a new-media expert from the University
of Southern California.

"These are rather dumb generals when it comes to the economy," he was quoted as saying. "How they can so mismanage the economy and reach this stage when the country has so many natural resources?"

Lee said that Singapore hoteliers who sunk millions of dollars into Myanmar on his advice have now found their hotels empty.

He has tried to advise the generals to take Myanmar out of isolation, referring specifically to former junta member Khin Nyunt, who is currently under house arrest.

"He's the most intelligent of the lot," Lee said of Khin Nyunt, who as prime minister and head of military intelligence was once part of a troika in the military junta, but apparently fell out with the
current regime chief Senior General Than Shwe and was stripped of his posts in 2004.

Lee said he could not understand how the generals could believe that they could let Myanmar remain isolated, adding that even medicines were being smuggled from Thailand.

Referring to recent excesses by the junta, Lee said that the rulers must have pushed "a hungry and impoverished" people to revolt. Among the excesses were moving to a new administrative capital,
Naypyidaw, complete with expensive buildings.

"We will see how it is, but whatever it is, I do not believe that they can survive indefinitely," Lee said.

Observer thought that it could be "oriental politeness" which restrained ASEAN and China from disgracing Burma in public. ASEAN recently broke with traditional courtesy and chided Burma but short of imposing sanctions which could spell an end of all lines to Yangon. I wonder how many parents could claim they are influential on the children's thinking and actions? Could we simply disown family members and relatives on the pretext of condemning atrocious things they have done and would this be effective in changing their minds?

12 June 2009

Singapore's Senior Minister, Goh Chok Tong, has urged junta to continue with its process of national reconciliation and democracy.

Wrapping up his four-day visit to the country, Mr Goh noted that without political reform, Burma will not be able to achieve fast economic growth like other ASEAN economies.

And in its efforts towards national reconciliation, Mr Goh said junta cannot ignore the international interest surrounding pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's trial.

Ms Suu Kyi is currently on trial for breaching the rules governing her house arrest.

Mr Goh said he had constructive discussions with Burma's top leaders, including Senior General Than Shwe. And it provided him with insights into just how complex Burma's political situation is.

He said: "I could see that Senior General Than Shwe is in a very difficult position. He has inherited this military regime - Myanmar has been under military government since 1962, so it's not his creation. Myanmar has come to a cul de sac, how does it make a u-turn? I think that's not easy."

Mr Goh added that Burma's stability is dependent on bringing together the three parties - the military government, the ethnic groups and the opposition.

Seventeen ethnic groups have signed a ceasefire agreement, but it is still unclear if all will take part in the upcoming polls.

Mr Goh noted that Senior General Than Shwe would like to bring the country towards democracy, using a cautious but practical approach.

The key test would be in the country's general election in 2010. Mr Goh said the process must be legitimate - that meansfair and transparent elections.

He added that all parties that want to contest the elections should be allowed to do so, including Aung San Suu Kyi and her party - the National League for Democracy.

"Because if she's not campaigning for the party and whoever wins, well, one could argue that it's not quite legitimate because the main opposition party was not campaigning with its leader," he said.

Mr Goh said he has conveyed Singapore's view on the arrest of Ms Suu Kyi. He said Singapore is "dismayed by the arrest"... and it is "concerned as to what the verdict will be like and what the sentence will be like."

And while the matter is a domestic affair, Mr Goh stressed that Burma cannot ignore international interest in Ms Suu Kyi's trial and verdict because it would affect Burma's international relations.

Mr Goh pointed out that President Barack Obama's new administration is reviewing its foreign policy and Burma's actions will determine its relations with America.

He said: "I gave observation that the US government under Presdent Obama and State Secretary Hilary Clinton is reviewing foreign policy on all countries, including China, India, the Islamic world and North Korea.

"President Obama is trying to reach out to others, including those the US does not have good relations with. So Myanmar, in time to come, will also be reviewed and if Myanmar wants to have good relations with the US, how the trial comes out and the verdict will be, it will affect Myanmar-US relations.

"I think the government is aware that there is international perspective on Aung San Suu Kyi's trial. But it's a domestic affair. What the verdict and sentence will be, we will not want to pre-judge or influence them in any way."

Mr Goh added that how Burma is going to be governed will determine whether the country gets investments.

He observed that while there is progress in urban cities with new buildings and more cars, rural areas remain in poverty with many still living in thatched houses.

Burma's Prime Minister, Thein Sein, had said he would like to see investments from Singapore, but Mr Goh pointed out that is not possible until Burma's elections and results are known.

He said: "I don't believe any Singapore investors would come in a big way before the picture is clear, before this move to democracy is seen to produce results."

Mr Goh said he left with the impression that his points had been noted. "Beyond that, I cannot read their minds, but they gave me more than one hour, listening to my observations. We do not pressure them on what to do and I did not come here to give advice.

"But what I told him is we got to understand global trends, so what I could do as an old friend of Myanmar is to give inputs, and I made it very clear these are inputs."

Mr Goh also explained why Singapore is concerned about developments in Burma. He said being part of ASEAN, if Burma prospers, it will be good for the region and it will be better to have a prosperous ASEAN than a region with all kinds of problems.